UT Index (measure of slack):

The UT Index

Recession Alert (developed at recessionalert.com):

recession alert

Effective Demand Limit $16.250 trillion projected:

Effective demand Y and PY recent

Tracking GDI with Effective Demand Limit:


Effective Demand Fed rate rule (uses CPI less food & energy):

ED Fed rate

Output Gap (big difference):

Output gap

Speed of consuming slack: yoy monthly:

Speed of consuming slack

Speed of consuming slack: quarterly:

Speed of consuming slack quarterly

Real consumption per Employee:

real consumption per employee 2

Will real wages ever rise faster than productivity?:

Productivity & Real Wages

Real Wage Index:

real wage index



Productivity against Effective Demand limit:

Prod & ED limit

Bottom of Initial Claims?:

Initial claims

Are we seeing the Fisher Effect?:

Fisher effect?

Measures of Inflation:

Measures of Inflation

M2 velocity still falling:

Measures of Inflation

Double checking labor share with unit labor costs & inflation:

Data as of 3rdQ-2014
Effective Demand = $15.979 trillion
Real GDP = $16.164 trillion
UT index = -0.8%
Effective labor share = 73.6%
TFUR = 74.4%
ED Fed rate = 4.1%

Projected Effective Demand limit upon real GDP is $16.250 trillion.

Projected data for 4thQ-2014

Real GDP = $16.250 trillion
Effective labor share = 74.5%
Capacity utilization = 79.8%
Unemployment = 5.8%
TFUR = 75.2%

There is no recession for 3rdQ-2014. None expected in 4thQ-2014.

(UT index close to 0.0% shows that real GDP is hitting the effective demand limit. Utilization rates of capital and labor slow down. If UT index begins to rise, the economy is contracting.)
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Edward Lambert: Independent Researcher on Effective Demand.
Some links for economic analysis
Fed Views - San Francisco Fed, around 10th of each month.
Well's Fargo monthly - around 10th of each month
Well's Fargo weekly
Well's Fargo Interest rate report
Well's Fargo Economic indicators
T. Rowe Price weekly market wrap-up
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