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Data as of 4thQ-2015
Effective Demand = $17.067 trillion
Real GDP = $16.455 trillion
UT index = +3.0%
Effective demand limit upon TFUR = 76.2%
TFUR = 73.2%
ED Fed rate = 2.6%
Estimated Natural Real Interest rate = 2.0%

There is no recession for 4thQ-2015. None expected thru 1stQ-2016.

(UT index close to 0.0% shows that real GDP is hitting the effective demand limit. UT index rose through 2015 after hitting the limit in 2014.)

Click on Graphs below to see new data by updating at FRED.

UT Index (measure of slack):

The UT Index

Recession Alert (developed at recessionalert.com):

recession alert

ED Output Gap:

ED Output gap

Regressed Output Gap:

Output gap

Speed of consuming slack: yoy monthly:

Speed of consuming slack

Speed of consuming slack: quarterly:

Speed of consuming slack quarterly

Real consumption per Employee:

real consumption per employee 2

Will real wages ever rise faster than productivity?:

Productivity & Real Wages

Real Wage Index:

real wage index



Productivity against Effective Demand limit:

Prod & ED limit

Bottom of Initial Claims?:

Initial claims

Tracking inflation expectations:

Fisher effect?

Measures of Inflation:

Measures of Inflation

M2 velocity still falling:

Measures of Inflation

Double checking labor share with unit labor costs & inflation:

My Photo
Edward Lambert: Independent Researcher on Effective Demand.
Some links for economic analysis
Fed Views - San Francisco Fed, around 10th of each month.
Well's Fargo monthly - around 10th of each month
Well's Fargo weekly
Well's Fargo Interest rate report
Well's Fargo Economic indicators
T. Rowe Price weekly market wrap-up
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