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UT Index (measure of slack):

The UT Index

Recession Alert (developed at recessionalert.com):

recession alert

Effective Demand Limit $16.250 trillion projected:

Effective demand Y and PY recent

Tracking GDI with Effective Demand Limit:


Effective Demand Fed rate rule (uses CPI less food & energy):

ED Fed rate

Output Gap (big difference):

Output gap

Speed of consuming slack: yoy monthly:

Speed of consuming slack

Speed of consuming slack: quarterly:

Speed of consuming slack quarterly

Real consumption per Employee:

real consumption per employee 2

Will real wages ever rise faster than productivity?:

Productivity & Real Wages

Real Wage Index:

real wage index



Productivity against Effective Demand limit:

Prod & ED limit

Bottom of Initial Claims?:

Initial claims

Are we seeing the Fisher Effect?:

Fisher effect?

Measures of Inflation:

Measures of Inflation

Double checking labor share with unit labor costs & inflation:

Data as of 2Q-2014
Effective Demand = $16.161 trillion
Real GDP = $16.010 trillion
UT index = 0.7%
Effective labor share = 74.8%
TFUR = 74.1%
ED Fed rate = 3.0%

Projected Effective Demand limit upon real GDP is $16.250 trillion.

Projected data for 3Q-2014

Capacity utilization = 79.0%
Unemployment = 6.1%

There is no recession for 2ndQ-2014. None expected through 4thQ.

(UT index close to 0.0% would show that real GDP is hitting the effective demand limit. Utilization rates of capital and labor would slow down at that point. If UT index begins to rise, the economy is contracting.)
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Edward Lambert: Independent Researcher on Effective Demand.
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