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04/12/2013

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Link to UT Index Graph:

The UT Index
Data as of 2Q-2014
Effective Demand = $16.073 trillion
Real GDP = $15.985 trillion
UT index = 0.4%
Effective labor share = 74.6%
TFUR = 74.2%
ED Fed rate = 3.5% (would be Fed rate in normal business cycle. Potential GDP is lower than most say.)

Projected Effective Demand limit upon real GDP is $16.150 trillion.

Projected data for 3Q-2014

Capacity utilization = 79.2%
Unemployment = 6.2%

There is no recession for 2ndQ-2014. None expected through 3rdQ.

(UT index close to 0.0% would show that real GDP is hitting the effective demand limit. Utilization rates of capital and labor would slow down at that point. And, if UT index begins to rise, the economy is contracting.)
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Edward Lambert: Independent Researcher on the equation for Effective Demand.
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