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04/23/2013

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UT Index (measure of slack):

The UT Index

Recession Alert (developed at recessionalert.com):

recession alert

Effective Demand Limit $16.250 trillion projected:

Effective demand Y and PY recent

Tracking GDI with Effective Demand Limit:

GDI & ED

Effective Demand Fed rate rule (uses CPI less food & energy):

ED Fed rate

Output Gap (big difference):

Output gap

Speed of consuming slack: yoy monthly:

Speed of consuming slack

Speed of consuming slack: quarterly:

Speed of consuming slack quarterly

Real consumption per Employee:

real consumption per employee 2

Will real wages ever rise faster than productivity?:

Productivity & Real Wages

Real Wage Index:

real wage index

Productivity:

Productivity

Productivity against Effective Demand limit:

Prod & ED limit

Bottom of Initial Claims?:

Initial claims

Are we seeing the Fisher Effect?:

Fisher effect?

Measures of Inflation:

Measures of Inflation

M2 velocity still falling:

Measures of Inflation

Double checking labor share with unit labor costs & inflation:

ULC LS CPI
Data as of 3rdQ-2014
Effective Demand = $16.288 trillion
Real GDP = $16.150 trillion
UT index = 0.6%
Effective labor share = 74.8%
TFUR = 74.2%
ED Fed rate = 3.2%

Projected Effective Demand limit upon real GDP is $16.250 trillion.

Projected data for 4thQ-2014

Real GDP = $16.250 trillion
Effective labor share = 75.0%
Capacity utilization = 79.0%
Unemployment = 5.9%
TFUR = 74.4%

There is no recession for 3rdQ-2014. None expected in 4thQ-2014.

(UT index close to 0.0% shows that real GDP is hitting the effective demand limit. Utilization rates of capital and labor slow down. If UT index begins to rise, the economy is contracting.)
My Photo
Edward Lambert: Independent Researcher on Effective Demand.
Some links for economic analysis
Fed Views - San Francisco Fed, around 10th of each month.
Well's Fargo monthly - around 10th of each month
Well's Fargo weekly
Well's Fargo Interest rate report
Well's Fargo Economic indicators
T. Rowe Price weekly market wrap-up
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