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Link to UT Index Graph:

The UT Index
Data as of 4Q-2013
Effective Demand = $16.089 trillion
Real GDP = $15.942 trillion
UT index = 0.7%
Effective labor share = 73.6%
TFUR = 72.9%
ED Fed rate = 3.0% (would be Fed rate in normal business cycle. Potential GDP is lower than most say.)

Projected Effective Demand limit upon real GDP between $16.050 & $16.100 trillion.

Other data updated 1Q-2014

Capacity utilization = 78.7%
Unemployment = 6.7%

There is no recession for 4thQ-2013. None expected for 1stQ-2014.

(UT index close to 0.0% would show that real GDP is hitting the effective demand limit. Utilization rates of capital and labor would slow down at that point. And, if UT index begins to rise, the economy is contracting.)
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Edward Lambert: Independent Researcher on the equation for Effective Demand.
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Member since 03/2013