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Data as of 3rdQ-2015
Effective Demand = $16.766 trillion
Real GDP = $16.414 trillion
UT index = +1.69%
Effective demand limit = 75.5%
TFUR = 73.8%
ED Fed rate = 2.8%
Estimated Natural Real Interest rate = 2.0%

There is no recession for 3rdQ-2015. None expected thru 1stQ-2016.

(UT index close to 0.0% shows that real GDP is hitting the effective demand limit. UT index rose through 2015 after hitting the limit in 2014.)

UT Index (measure of slack):

The UT Index

Recession Alert (developed at recessionalert.com):

recession alert

Output Gap (big difference):

Output gap

Speed of consuming slack: yoy monthly:

Speed of consuming slack

Speed of consuming slack: quarterly:

Speed of consuming slack quarterly

Real consumption per Employee:

real consumption per employee 2

Will real wages ever rise faster than productivity?:

Productivity & Real Wages

Real Wage Index:

real wage index



Productivity against Effective Demand limit:

Prod & ED limit

Bottom of Initial Claims?:

Initial claims

Tracking inflation expectations:

Fisher effect?

Measures of Inflation:

Measures of Inflation

M2 velocity still falling:

Measures of Inflation

Double checking labor share with unit labor costs & inflation:

My Photo
Edward Lambert: Independent Researcher on Effective Demand.
Some links for economic analysis
Fed Views - San Francisco Fed, around 10th of each month.
Well's Fargo monthly - around 10th of each month
Well's Fargo weekly
Well's Fargo Interest rate report
Well's Fargo Economic indicators
T. Rowe Price weekly market wrap-up
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