« Super Macroeconomic Potential real GDP | Main | An Income Shock can push us into an Economic Contraction »

04/08/2013

Data as of 2ndQ-2015
Effective Demand = $16.794 trillion
Real GDP = $16.270 trillion
UT index = +2.6%
Effective demand limit = 76.2%
TFUR = 73.6%
ED Fed rate = 1.7%

Weakness in effective demand is projected to grow toward end of 2015.

There is no recession for 2ndQ-2015. None expected thru 4thQ-2015.

(UT index close to 0.0% shows that real GDP is hitting the effective demand limit. Utilization rates of capital and labor slow down.)

UT Index (measure of slack):

The UT Index

Recession Alert (developed at recessionalert.com):

recession alert

Output Gap (big difference):

Output gap

Speed of consuming slack: yoy monthly:

Speed of consuming slack

Speed of consuming slack: quarterly:

Speed of consuming slack quarterly

Real consumption per Employee:

real consumption per employee 2

Will real wages ever rise faster than productivity?:

Productivity & Real Wages

Real Wage Index:

real wage index

Productivity:

Productivity

Productivity against Effective Demand limit:

Prod & ED limit

Bottom of Initial Claims?:

Initial claims

Tracking inflation expectations:

Fisher effect?

Measures of Inflation:

Measures of Inflation

M2 velocity still falling:

Measures of Inflation

Double checking labor share with unit labor costs & inflation:

ULC LS CPI
My Photo
Edward Lambert: Independent Researcher on Effective Demand.
Some links for economic analysis
Fed Views - San Francisco Fed, around 10th of each month.
Well's Fargo monthly - around 10th of each month
Well's Fargo weekly
Well's Fargo Interest rate report
Well's Fargo Economic indicators
T. Rowe Price weekly market wrap-up
Blog powered by Typepad
Member since 03/2013