I was once told by an expert in recession forecasting that GDI (gross domestic income) is more useful than GDP for recession forecasting. The drawback of GDI is that it is released one month later than GDP. However, with the first releases of GDP being highly revised later, the first release of GDP can be misleading. It is better than to wait for the GDI release.
I prepared some comparisons of GDI to GDP.
1. Before the 2008 recession
First the GDP graph...
There does not seem to be much difference in the shape of the interaction when the meet.
2. After the 2008 Recession
There does not seem to be much of a difference.
3. There is more of a difference between the following graphs...
GDI flat-lined from mid 2006 to the recession which helped to delineate the effective demand limit. Whereas GDP rose during that period.
It is also interesting to note how potential GDI in the last graph was flat-lining from 2006 before the crisis all the way to 2010.