I use a graph to track utilization of labor and capital with regards to profit rate maximization. In the graph, profit rates rise toward the right and then rise up and to left along the orange line. The blue line is the standard effective demand limit.
Here is the quarterly graph updated to 3rdQ-2014.
The plot has headed straight toward the crossing point between the effective demand limit and the line of profit maximization. As of 3rdQ-2014, the plot reached the crossing point. From this point forward, the effective demand theory would say that the plot will move up the orange line of profit maximization implying that the UT index will increase toward a recession. The UT index increases as the utilization of labor and capital move away from the blue effective demand limit line.
Therefore we would most likely see a drop in future capacity utilization. If we see a continual drop in the unemployment rate as a result of the stock market fear this week, then a contraction would be setting in.
Here is the monthly plot...
September saw a big push over the lines. My sense is that firms are in a race to maintain profit shares at the end of a business cycle. They felt the chill of declining profits in September. From here on out, firms will have to contract in order to maintain profit shares, as seen by the plot hitting the orange line. Now firms will have to contract capital utilization while trying to maintain the same output in order to maintain profit rates.