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11/17/2014

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Useful display. Would be great to:

1. See that graph for some previous business cycles. Economy can squiggle around the ED limit for a while, as I remember (esp if there's new debt/borrowing supporting it; is there now?). How long?

2. Attach a few dates along that squiggly line to orient us. I assume those are quarterly measures being plotted??

Thanks!

Steve

HI Steve,
Those are actually monthly data points since 2009.
I follow the quarterly with the labor share index as the main graph.
Some graphs of the past are found here...
http://effectivedemand.typepad.com/ed/2013/10/the-cobra-equation-and-the-2001-recession.html

and

http://effectivedemand.typepad.com/ed/2013/10/the-cobra-equation-for-the-effective-demand-business-cycle.html

I thought I had more posted from past recessions, but I do not see them now. I will have to post those.

Thanks!

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Data as of 1stQ-2017
Effective Demand = $17.613 trillion
Real GDP = $16.842 trillion
Productive Capacity is rising to next business cycle = $23.285 trillion
UT index is rising = +3.9%
Effective demand limit = 76.2%
TFUR = 72.3%
ED Fed rate rule (down from a peak of 3.8% in 2014) = 1.4%
Estimated Natural Real Interest rate = 2.0%
Short-term real interest rate (fallen from 2.8% peak in 2014) = -0.3%

There is no recession for 1stQ-2017. I am expecting a recession by end of 2017.




Click on Graphs below to see updated data at FRED.

UT Index (measure of slack):

The UT Index

z-vertical:

z-vertical

z derivatives in terms of labor & capital:

z derivatives in terms of labor & capital

Effective Demand, real GDP & Potential GDP:

ED, real GDP & pot rGDP

ED Output Gap:

ED Output gap

Corporate profit rate over real cost of money:

Corp profit rate over real cost of money

Exponential decay of Inflation:

Corporate profits impact Inflation

Measures of Inflation:

Measures of Inflation

YoY Employment change:

YoY employment change

Speed of consuming slack: yoy monthly:

Speed of consuming slack

Speed of consuming slack: quarterly:

Speed of consuming slack quarterly

Real consumption per Employee:

real consumption per employee 2

Will real wages ever rise faster than productivity?:

Productivity & Real Wages

Real Wage Index:

real wage index

Productivity:

Productivity

Productivity against Effective Demand limit:

Prod & ED limit

Bottom of Initial Claims?:

Initial claims

Tracking inflation expectations:

Fisher effect?

M2 velocity still falling:

Measures of Inflation

All in one:

All in one

Double checking labor share with unit labor costs & inflation:

ULC LS CPI
My Photo
Edward Lambert: Independent Researcher on Effective Demand.
Some links for economic analysis
Fed Views - San Francisco Fed, around 10th of each month.
Well's Fargo monthly - around 10th of each month
Well's Fargo weekly
Well's Fargo Interest rate report
Well's Fargo Economic indicators
T. Rowe Price weekly market wrap-up
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