The UT index is a simple measure of the business cycle. Think of it as the first approximation of the effective demand limit. It measures labor share against the utilization of labor and capital. The idea is that the composite utilization of labor and capital, (capacity utilization x (1 - unemployment rate), will not go much above an effective labor share number (labor share index x 0.765).
Here is the updated graph with data up to the 1st quarter of 2015.
The index has reached its effective lower zero bound... and rose in the 1st quarter, 2015. It is following a basic pattern of reaching the zero bound, bouncing around there for a bit of time and then rising toward a recession.
There is not much of a prospect of a recession at the moment even though some are saying that maybe the US has entered a recession. No, effective demand is rising because headline inflation was falling and long-term interest rates were falling. But I foresee that the UT index will head back down toward zero in the next three quarters due to the Fed lifting off the Fed rate, headline inflation heading back up, unemployment falling some more and long-term rates rising. Then the economy will be in a vulnerable position to start heading toward a recession.
I will post the more complicated version of the UT index later which includes factors beyond labor share. But the UT index itself is following its basic pattern of saying that the business cycle is reaching its end.