OK... I am ready to start blogging again... I feel that the economy will once again start closing against effective demand. So let's see where Effective Demand was up to the 2nd quarter in 2015.
The basic format of the equation is...
UT index = labor share * 0.762 - (capacity utilization * (1 - unemployment rate))
Just as before the last two recessions, the UT index has come close to zero and moved up a bit. So I might forecast that as the UT index comes back toward zero and then starts up again, we would be moving toward a recession.
This possibility of recession based on effective demand is what I will be watching.