« Wobbling on Verge of a Recession? | Main | Inventories to Sales Ratio Rising »

12/16/2015

Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

Edward,

Thank you for revisiting the COBRA equation...How do you assess likelihood that lower Cap Util AND lower unemployment lies ahead? Versus move towards full contraction environment?

Enjoy having you back in the blogosphere for this critical time!

Alan

Alan,
The pattern is looking like we are very near an economic contraction. But the contraction is hiding from plain sight. My sense is that something will trigger weaknesses in the markets exposing them. My sense is that will happen within 6 months, but labor share is rising, which could trigger a contraction or extend the biz cycle. But I do not see a bubble, so a contraction is more likely.

Thank you. Yield curve over next couple of weeks could be quite telling. Flattening already shows from last month or so. Could get more demonstrative once lift-off occurs.

The comments to this entry are closed.

Data as of 3rdQ-2017
Effective Demand = $17.424 trillion
Real GDP = $17.157 trillion
Productive Capacity is rising to next business cycle = $23.558 trillion
UT index is falling= +1.1%
Effective demand limit = 73.9%
TFUR = 72.8%
ED Fed rate rule (down from a peak of 3.8% in 2014) = 2.2%
Estimated Natural Real Interest rate = 2.2%
Short-term real interest rate (fallen from 2.8% peak in 2014) = -1.7%

There is no recession for 3rdQ-2017. Chance of recession is growing as economy heads toward 2nd effective demand limit in this business cycle. I am forecasting economic contraction in 2018.




Click on Graphs below to see updated data at FRED.

UT Index (measure of slack):

The UT Index

z-vertical:

z-vertical

z derivatives in terms of labor & capital:

z derivatives in terms of labor & capital

Effective Demand, real GDP & Potential GDP:

ED, real GDP & pot rGDP

ED Output Gap:

ED Output gap

Corporate profit rate over real cost of money:

Corp profit rate over real cost of money

Exponential decay of Inflation:

Corporate profits impact Inflation

Measures of Inflation:

Measures of Inflation

YoY Employment change:

YoY employment change

Speed of consuming slack: yoy monthly:

Speed of consuming slack

Speed of consuming slack: quarterly:

Speed of consuming slack quarterly

Real consumption per Employee:

real consumption per employee 2

Will real wages ever rise faster than productivity?:

Productivity & Real Wages

Real Wage Index:

real wage index

Productivity:

Productivity

Productivity against Effective Demand limit:

Prod & ED limit

Bottom of Initial Claims?:

Initial claims

Tracking inflation expectations:

Fisher effect?

M2 velocity still falling:

Measures of Inflation

All in one:

All in one

Double checking labor share with unit labor costs & inflation:

ULC LS CPI
My Photo
Edward Lambert: Independent Researcher on Effective Demand.
Some links for economic analysis
Fed Views - San Francisco Fed, around 10th of each month.
Well's Fargo monthly - around 10th of each month
Well's Fargo weekly
Well's Fargo Interest rate report
Well's Fargo Economic indicators
T. Rowe Price weekly market wrap-up
Blog powered by Typepad
Member since 03/2013