effective labor share > capacity utilization * (1 - unemployment rate)

Effective Demand = $17.424 trillion

Real GDP = $17.157 trillion

Productive Capacity is rising to next business cycle = $23.558 trillion

UT index is falling= +1.1%

Effective demand limit = 73.9%

TFUR = 72.8%

ED Fed rate rule (down from a peak of 3.8% in 2014) = 2.2%

Estimated Natural Real Interest rate = 2.2%

Short-term real interest rate (fallen from 2.8% peak in 2014) = -1.7%

There is no recession for 3rdQ-2017. Chance of recession is growing as economy heads toward 2nd effective demand limit in this business cycle. I am forecasting economic contraction in 2018.

Click on Graphs below to see updated data at FRED.

- AS-ED model
- Basic proof
- Books
- business cycle
- circular flow model
- Cobra equation
- Current Affairs
- equation basics
- equation dynamics
- Financial repression
- Fisher Effect
- growth model
- inflation
- international economics
- IS - LM model
- Labor & Capital
- minimum & living wages
- Monetary policy
- Net exports
- output gap
- Potential GDP
- predictions
- Productivity
- recessions
- recovery
- Unemployment
- Videos

Edward Lambert: Independent Researcher on Effective Demand.

Fed Views - San Francisco Fed, around 10th of each month.

Well's Fargo monthly - around 10th of each month

Well's Fargo weekly

Well's Fargo Interest rate report

Well's Fargo Economic indicators

T. Rowe Price weekly market wrap-up

- Inflation & changes in the # of employed
- Currently at Inflection Point of Unemployment
- Approaching Effective Demand Limit Again
- Capital is Optimizing again
- Projecting the Effective Demand Limit
- Effective Demand Model did very well
- Watching the Craziness
- Inflation as a Mouse not being Chased
- Projecting a Fed Rate Path
- One trend toward a Recession: yoy % change of U3 & U6