effective labor share > capacity utilization * (1 - unemployment rate)

Effective Demand = $17.222 trillion

Real GDP = $17.011 trillion

Productive Capacity is rising to next business cycle = $23.266 trillion

UT index is falling= +0.9%

Effective demand limit = 74.0%

TFUR = 73.1%

ED Fed rate rule (down from a peak of 3.8% in 2014) = 1.9%

Estimated Natural Real Interest rate = 1.6%

Short-term real interest rate (fallen from 2.8% peak in 2014) = -1.2%

There is no recession for 2ndQ-2017. Chance of recession is growing as economy heads toward 2nd effective demand limit in this business cycle.

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Edward Lambert: Independent Researcher on Effective Demand.

Fed Views - San Francisco Fed, around 10th of each month.

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T. Rowe Price weekly market wrap-up

- Approaching Effective Demand Limit Again
- Capital is Optimizing again
- Projecting the Effective Demand Limit
- Effective Demand Model did very well
- Watching the Craziness
- Inflation as a Mouse not being Chased
- Projecting a Fed Rate Path
- One trend toward a Recession: yoy % change of U3 & U6
- Picture of Output gap from Effective Demand
- Repost from June 2014: Defining Effective Demand as Keynes saw it