Effective Demand = $17.386 trillion

Real GDP = $17.379 trillion

Productive Capacity = $23.479 trillion

UT index is at effective demand limit = +0.03%

Effective demand limit = 74.0%

TFUR = 74.0%

ED Fed rate rule = 3.4%

Estimated Natural Real Interest rate = 2.2%

Short-term real interest rate (fallen from 2.8% peak in 2014) = 2.4%

There is no recession for 1stQ-2018. Chance of recession is growing as economy heads toward 2nd effective demand limit in this business cycle. I am forecasting that economic conditions will begin to contract in the second half of 2018.

Click on Graphs below to see updated data at FRED.

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Edward Lambert: Independent Researcher on Effective Demand.

Fed Views - San Francisco Fed, around 10th of each month.

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T. Rowe Price weekly market wrap-up

- Capital Income Consumption is Finally Falling
- Inflation & changes in the # of employed
- Currently at Inflection Point of Unemployment
- Approaching Effective Demand Limit Again
- Capital is Optimizing again
- Projecting the Effective Demand Limit
- Effective Demand Model did very well
- Watching the Craziness
- Inflation as a Mouse not being Chased
- Projecting a Fed Rate Path