business cycle

05/28/2016

05/04/2016

03/15/2016

01/30/2016

01/06/2016

11/02/2015

10/24/2015

10/09/2015

10/07/2015

09/14/2015

Data as of 1stQ-2016
Effective Demand = $17.341 trillion
Real GDP = $16.505 trillion
Productive Capacity = $23.0 trillion
UT index is rising = +4.4%
Effective demand limit = 76.1%
TFUR = 71.7%
ED Fed rate = 2.4%
Estimated Natural Real Interest rate = 2.5%
Short-term real interest rate = 0.6%

There is no recession for 1stQ-2016. Risk is growing to see recession before end of 2016.

(UT index is rising which implies a recession is on the way.



Click on Graphs below to see new data by updating at FRED.

UT Index (measure of slack):

The UT Index

Recession Alert (developed at recessionalert.com):

recession alert

z-vertical:

z-vertical

z derivatives in terms of labor & capital:

z derivatives in terms of labor & capital

Effective Demand, real GDP & Potential GDP:

ED, real GDP & pot rGDP

ED Output Gap:

ED Output gap

Regressed Output Gap:

Output gap

YoY Employment change:

YoY employment change

Speed of consuming slack: yoy monthly:

Speed of consuming slack

Speed of consuming slack: quarterly:

Speed of consuming slack quarterly

Real consumption per Employee:

real consumption per employee 2

Will real wages ever rise faster than productivity?:

Productivity & Real Wages

Real Wage Index:

real wage index

Productivity:

Productivity

Productivity against Effective Demand limit:

Prod & ED limit

Bottom of Initial Claims?:

Initial claims

Tracking inflation expectations:

Fisher effect?

Measures of Inflation:

Measures of Inflation

M2 velocity still falling:

Measures of Inflation

Double checking labor share with unit labor costs & inflation:

ULC LS CPI
My Photo
Edward Lambert: Independent Researcher on Effective Demand.
Some links for economic analysis
Fed Views - San Francisco Fed, around 10th of each month.
Well's Fargo monthly - around 10th of each month
Well's Fargo weekly
Well's Fargo Interest rate report
Well's Fargo Economic indicators
T. Rowe Price weekly market wrap-up
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