business cycle

06/23/2014

06/22/2014

06/10/2014

04/16/2014

02/24/2014

01/24/2014

12/23/2013

12/17/2013

11/12/2013

Link to UT Index Graph:

The UT Index
Data as of 1Q-2014
Effective Demand = $16.013 trillion
Real GDP = $15.824 trillion
UT index = 0.9%
Effective labor share = 74.3%
TFUR = 73.4%
ED Fed rate = 3.2% (would be Fed rate in normal business cycle. Potential GDP is lower than most say.)

Projected Effective Demand limit upon real GDP is $16.100 trillion.

Projected data for 2Q-2014

Capacity utilization = 78.7%
Unemployment = 6.3%

There is no recession for 1stQ-2014. None expected through 3rdQ-2014.

(UT index close to 0.0% would show that real GDP is hitting the effective demand limit. Utilization rates of capital and labor would slow down at that point. And, if UT index begins to rise, the economy is contracting.)
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Edward Lambert: Independent Researcher on the equation for Effective Demand.
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