growth model

05/28/2016

03/14/2014

12/03/2013

11/15/2013

11/14/2013

11/12/2013

11/01/2013

10/03/2013

09/29/2013

07/19/2013

Data as of 1stQ-2018
Effective Demand = $17.386 trillion
Real GDP = $17.379 trillion
Productive Capacity = $23.479 trillion
UT index is at effective demand limit = +0.03%
Effective demand limit = 74.0%
TFUR = 74.0%
ED Fed rate rule = 3.4%
Estimated Natural Real Interest rate = 2.2%
Short-term real interest rate (fallen from 2.8% peak in 2014) = 2.4%

There is no recession for 1stQ-2018. Chance of recession is growing as economy heads toward 2nd effective demand limit in this business cycle. I am forecasting that economic conditions will begin to contract in the second half of 2018.




Click on Graphs below to see updated data at FRED.

UT Index (measure of slack):

The UT Index

z-vertical:

z-vertical

z derivatives in terms of labor & capital:

z derivatives in terms of labor & capital

Effective Demand, real GDP & Potential GDP:

ED, real GDP & pot rGDP

ED Output Gap:

ED Output gap

Corporate profit rate over real cost of money:

Corp profit rate over real cost of money

Exponential decay of Inflation:

Corporate profits impact Inflation

Measures of Inflation:

Measures of Inflation

YoY Employment change:

YoY employment change

Speed of consuming slack: yoy monthly:

Speed of consuming slack

Speed of consuming slack: quarterly:

Speed of consuming slack quarterly

Real consumption per Employee:

real consumption per employee 2

Will real wages ever rise faster than productivity?:

Productivity & Real Wages

Real Wage Index:

real wage index

Productivity:

Productivity

Productivity against Effective Demand limit:

Prod & ED limit

Bottom of Initial Claims?:

Initial claims

Tracking inflation expectations:

Fisher effect?

M2 velocity still falling:

Measures of Inflation

All in one:

All in one

Double checking labor share with unit labor costs & inflation:

ULC LS CPI
My Photo
Edward Lambert: Independent Researcher on Effective Demand.
Some links for economic analysis
Fed Views - San Francisco Fed, around 10th of each month.
Well's Fargo monthly - around 10th of each month
Well's Fargo weekly
Well's Fargo Interest rate report
Well's Fargo Economic indicators
T. Rowe Price weekly market wrap-up
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