From the previous post where I showed that Net exports also reflect the effective demand limit, I received some email questions. I was planning on posting an explanation, but now I will just post my quick reponses to the email questions.

Effective Demand = $18.332 trillion

Real GDP = $18.514 trillion

Productive Capacity = $24.711 trillion

UT index is at effective demand limit = -0.72%

Effective demand limit = 74.2%

TFUR = 74.9%

ED Fed rate rule = 4.3%

Estimated Natural Real Interest rate = 2.4%

Short-term real interest rate = 2.7%

There is no recession for 2ndQ-2018. Chance of recession is growing as economy heads toward 2nd effective demand limit in this business cycle. I am forecasting that economic conditions will begin to contract in the second half of 2018.

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- Capital Income Consumption is Finally Falling
- Inflation & changes in the # of employed
- Currently at Inflection Point of Unemployment
- Approaching Effective Demand Limit Again
- Capital is Optimizing again
- Projecting the Effective Demand Limit
- Effective Demand Model did very well
- Watching the Craziness
- Inflation as a Mouse not being Chased
- Projecting a Fed Rate Path