From the previous post where I showed that Net exports also reflect the effective demand limit, I received some email questions. I was planning on posting an explanation, but now I will just post my quick reponses to the email questions.

Effective Demand = $17.587 trillion

Real GDP = $16.805 trillion

Productive Capacity is rising to next business cycle =

UT index is rising = +3.9%

Effective demand limit = 75.9%

TFUR = 72.0%

ED Fed rate rule (down from a peak of 3.8% in 2014) = 1.6%

Estimated Natural Real Interest rate = 2.2%

Short-term real interest rate (fallen from 2.8% peak in 2014) = -0.5%

There is no recession for 4thQ-2016. I am expecting a recession by the middle of 2017.

(UT index is rising which implies a recession is on the way.

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