Effective Demand = $17.587 trillion

Real GDP = $16.805 trillion

Productive Capacity is rising to next business cycle =

UT index is rising = +3.9%

Effective demand limit = 75.9%

TFUR = 72.0%

ED Fed rate rule (down from a peak of 3.8% in 2014) = 1.6%

Estimated Natural Real Interest rate = 2.2%

Short-term real interest rate (fallen from 2.8% peak in 2014) = -0.5%

There is no recession for 4thQ-2016. I am expecting a recession by the middle of 2017.

(UT index is rising which implies a recession is on the way.

Click on Graphs below to see updated data at FRED.

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Edward Lambert: Independent Researcher on Effective Demand.

Fed Views - San Francisco Fed, around 10th of each month.

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- Effective Demand Model did very well
- Watching the Craziness
- Inflation as a Mouse not being Chased
- Projecting a Fed Rate Path
- One trend toward a Recession: yoy % change of U3 & U6
- Picture of Output gap from Effective Demand
- Repost from June 2014: Defining Effective Demand as Keynes saw it
- Yellen wants to understand effective demand
- A glitch in the IS-LM model
- Larry Summers is beginning to see Effective Demand