Was the poor number for 4Q-2012 real GDP really a surprise?

We can see in the graph below from FRED that after the crisis effective demand (red line) skyrocketed upward along with a huge contraction in output (blue line). But the dynamics of recovery kicked in and output rose with such excess demand. But we can see that the excess demand is almost all used up now. Still, as effective demand came close to real GDP in 3Q-2012, there seems to have been a bit of a reaction on both parts, effective demand and real GDP, to create a small contraction in the 4Q-2012. Is this a surprise or just the expected dynamics of effective demand coming close to output?

Economists seemed surprised by the poor number in real GDP. However, they didn't have the equation for effective demand. And now effective demand looks to be getting even closer to real GDP in 1Q-2013. (Capacity utilization has risen and unemployment has decreased.) If labor share (business sector) ticks down, we will see some downward pressure on real GDP in the 1st half of 2013 just from the dynamics of very low excess effective demand.