A recession is not going to happen soon barring a disaster. The economy is holding steady. The probability of a recession soon is "effectively" zero, because we haven't even passed the point where a recession would occur. A recession won't occur until the expansion has ended, and the data shows there is still a bit more expansion ahead of us.
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04/26/2013
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Data as of 3rdQ-2018
Effective Demand = $18.433 trillion
Real GDP = $18.671 trillion
Productive Capacity = $24.872 trillion
UT index is at effective demand limit = -0.92%
Effective demand limit = 74.1%
TFUR = 75.1%
ED Fed rate rule = 4.0%
Estimated Natural Real Interest rate = 2.3%
Short-term real interest rate = 2.8%
There is no recession for 3rdQ-2018. Chance of recession is growing as economy has now reached 2nd effective demand limit in this business cycle. I am forecasting that economic conditions will begin to contract in the second half of 2018.
Click on Graphs below to see updated data at FRED.
Effective Demand = $18.433 trillion
Real GDP = $18.671 trillion
Productive Capacity = $24.872 trillion
UT index is at effective demand limit = -0.92%
Effective demand limit = 74.1%
TFUR = 75.1%
ED Fed rate rule = 4.0%
Estimated Natural Real Interest rate = 2.3%
Short-term real interest rate = 2.8%
There is no recession for 3rdQ-2018. Chance of recession is growing as economy has now reached 2nd effective demand limit in this business cycle. I am forecasting that economic conditions will begin to contract in the second half of 2018.
Click on Graphs below to see updated data at FRED.
UT Index (measure of slack):
z-vertical:
z derivatives in terms of labor & capital:
Effective Demand, real GDP & Potential GDP:
ED Output Gap:
Corporate profit rate over real cost of money:
Exponential decay of Inflation:
Measures of Inflation:
YoY Employment change:
Speed of consuming slack: yoy monthly:
Speed of consuming slack: quarterly:
Real consumption per Employee:
Will real wages ever rise faster than productivity?:
Productivity:
Productivity against Effective Demand limit:
Bottom of Initial Claims?:
Tracking inflation expectations:
M2 velocity still falling:
All in one:
Double checking labor share with unit labor costs & inflation:
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Edward Lambert: Independent Researcher on Effective Demand. Graduate of Atlantic International University where independent research was developed.
Some links for economic analysis
Fed Views - San Francisco Fed, around 10th of each month. Well's Fargo monthly - around 10th of each month Well's Fargo weekly Well's Fargo Interest rate report Well's Fargo Economic indicators T. Rowe Price weekly market wrap-up
Fed Views - San Francisco Fed, around 10th of each month. Well's Fargo monthly - around 10th of each month Well's Fargo weekly Well's Fargo Interest rate report Well's Fargo Economic indicators T. Rowe Price weekly market wrap-up
Recent Posts
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- Projecting the Effective Demand Limit
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- Watching the Craziness
- Inflation as a Mouse not being Chased
- Projecting a Fed Rate Path
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