I have had three posts that give three separate ways to predict the end of an expansion using the unemployment rate.

- Here the graph plotted real GDP and Effective demand directly against the unemployment rate. The place where Effective demand crosses real GDP determines the limit of that the unemployment rate will reach in an expansion.
- Here the graph plotted (Effective demand - potential real GDP) against the UT index. The trendline pointed right at a point on the y-intercept from which the approximate maximum unemployment rate of an expansion could be calculated.
- Here the graph plotted real GDP, potential real GDP and Effective demand against capacity utilization. It was shown that when the inflationary gap equals a function of the unemployment rate, the expansion has come to an end.

#1 and #2 both arrived at the same conclusion of 6.9% approximately. #3 only has a way of knowing when we have reached the limit of the expansion. If we say that unemployment will reach 6.9%, then we can predict that the Inflationary gap, as is calculated by the equations of Effective demand, will reach...

Inflationary gap limit = $3000 billion * 6.9%/(1 - 6.9%) = $222 billion.

This agrees with the y-intercept found in #2 above, which calculated $223 billion. The Inflationary gap is now $165 billion, so there looks to still be some growth remaining in the current expansion... some $50 to $60 billion worth approximately.