pot real GDP = real GDP - $3 trillion * (capacity utilization/labor share - 1)

Effective inflationary gap = $3 trillion * u/(1-u)

u = the unemployment rate

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Effective Demand = $18.433 trillion

Real GDP = $18.671 trillion

Productive Capacity = $24.872 trillion

UT index is at effective demand limit = -0.92%

Effective demand limit = 74.1%

TFUR = 75.1%

ED Fed rate rule = 4.0%

Estimated Natural Real Interest rate = 2.3%

Short-term real interest rate = 2.8%

There is no recession for 3rdQ-2018. Chance of recession is growing as economy has now reached 2nd effective demand limit in this business cycle. I am forecasting that economic conditions will begin to contract in the second half of 2018.

Click on Graphs below to see updated data at FRED.

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Edward Lambert: Independent Researcher on Effective Demand. Graduate of Atlantic International University where independent research was developed.

Fed Views - San Francisco Fed, around 10th of each month.

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- Capital Income Consumption is Finally Falling
- Inflation & changes in the # of employed
- Currently at Inflection Point of Unemployment
- Approaching Effective Demand Limit Again
- Capital is Optimizing again
- Projecting the Effective Demand Limit
- Effective Demand Model did very well
- Watching the Craziness
- Inflation as a Mouse not being Chased
- Projecting a Fed Rate Path

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