Here is a link to a great post by David Beckworth. I wish I had time at the moment to comment further...

LINK...

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Effective Demand = $18.433 trillion

Real GDP = $18.671 trillion

Productive Capacity = $24.872 trillion

UT index is at effective demand limit = -0.92%

Effective demand limit = 74.1%

TFUR = 75.1%

ED Fed rate rule = 4.0%

Estimated Natural Real Interest rate = 2.3%

Short-term real interest rate = 2.8%

There is no recession for 3rdQ-2018. Chance of recession is growing as economy has now reached 2nd effective demand limit in this business cycle. I am forecasting that economic conditions will begin to contract in the second half of 2018.

Click on Graphs below to see updated data at FRED.

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Edward Lambert: Independent Researcher on Effective Demand. Graduate of Atlantic International University where independent research was developed.

Fed Views - San Francisco Fed, around 10th of each month.

Well's Fargo monthly - around 10th of each month

Well's Fargo weekly

Well's Fargo Interest rate report

Well's Fargo Economic indicators

T. Rowe Price weekly market wrap-up

- Capital Income Consumption is Finally Falling
- Inflation & changes in the # of employed
- Currently at Inflection Point of Unemployment
- Approaching Effective Demand Limit Again
- Capital is Optimizing again
- Projecting the Effective Demand Limit
- Effective Demand Model did very well
- Watching the Craziness
- Inflation as a Mouse not being Chased
- Projecting a Fed Rate Path

In the data which I referred here http://www.nacm.org/cmi/cmi-archive.html

There is no explanation, but there have been very large revisions on page 2 in "Amount of credit extended" and "Rejections of credit applications"

Note the difference between March and April.

In the April article the word revision is used on Page 1 in the 2nd paragraph but not in a way that makes sense to me.

Posted by: JimH | 05/03/2015 at 08:27 AM