Here is a link to a great post by David Beckworth. I wish I had time at the moment to comment further...

LINK...

« March 2015 | Main | May 2015 »

Effective Demand = $18.433 trillion

Real GDP = $18.671 trillion

Productive Capacity = $24.872 trillion

UT index is at effective demand limit = -0.92%

Effective demand limit = 74.1%

TFUR = 75.1%

ED Fed rate rule = 4.0%

Estimated Natural Real Interest rate = 2.3%

Short-term real interest rate = 2.8%

There is no recession for 3rdQ-2018. Chance of recession is growing as economy has now reached 2nd effective demand limit in this business cycle. I am forecasting that economic conditions will begin to contract in the second half of 2018.

Click on Graphs below to see updated data at FRED.

- AS-ED model (37)
- Basic proof (5)
- Books (2)
- business cycle (76)
- circular flow model (12)
- Cobra equation (19)
- Current Affairs (97)
- equation basics (40)
- equation dynamics (80)
- Financial repression (6)
- Fisher Effect (27)
- growth model (26)
- inflation (46)
- international economics (4)
- IS - LM model (7)
- Labor & Capital (13)
- minimum & living wages (7)
- Monetary policy (124)
- Net exports (1)
- output gap (14)
- Potential GDP (11)
- predictions (42)
- Productivity (22)
- recessions (24)
- recovery (43)
- Unemployment (43)
- Videos (3)

Edward Lambert: Independent Researcher on Effective Demand. Graduate of Atlantic International University where independent research was developed.

Fed Views - San Francisco Fed, around 10th of each month.

Well's Fargo monthly - around 10th of each month

Well's Fargo weekly

Well's Fargo Interest rate report

Well's Fargo Economic indicators

T. Rowe Price weekly market wrap-up

- Capital Income Consumption is Finally Falling
- Inflation & changes in the # of employed
- Currently at Inflection Point of Unemployment
- Approaching Effective Demand Limit Again
- Capital is Optimizing again
- Projecting the Effective Demand Limit
- Effective Demand Model did very well
- Watching the Craziness
- Inflation as a Mouse not being Chased
- Projecting a Fed Rate Path