This graph shows yoy %change for the U-3 and U-6 rates for unemployment. (link)
They are on a normal trend of a business cycle where they bottom out and then head upwards. When the trend starts to go positive, a recession is imminent. The trend is just now hitting 0% which in the last two business cycles signaled a recession about 3 to 9 months ahead of time.
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Posted by: Leonard Matoka | 11/11/2016 at 11:41 PM
HI Leonard,
Good to see you here.
Edward
Posted by: Edward Lambert | 11/12/2016 at 12:21 PM