Looks like some correlation between inflation & %yoy number of employed. More workers, more new demand. (link to data)
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November 2017
11/06/2017
11/05/2017
Currently at Inflection Point of Unemployment
Economy is currently at limit of unemployment where either labor share rises, capacity utilization drops or unemployment starts rising. (link)
Data as of 3rdQ-2018
Effective Demand = $18.433 trillion
Real GDP = $18.671 trillion
Productive Capacity = $24.872 trillion
UT index is at effective demand limit = -0.92%
Effective demand limit = 74.1%
TFUR = 75.1%
ED Fed rate rule = 4.0%
Estimated Natural Real Interest rate = 2.3%
Short-term real interest rate = 2.8%
There is no recession for 3rdQ-2018. Chance of recession is growing as economy has now reached 2nd effective demand limit in this business cycle. I am forecasting that economic conditions will begin to contract in the second half of 2018.
Click on Graphs below to see updated data at FRED.
Effective Demand = $18.433 trillion
Real GDP = $18.671 trillion
Productive Capacity = $24.872 trillion
UT index is at effective demand limit = -0.92%
Effective demand limit = 74.1%
TFUR = 75.1%
ED Fed rate rule = 4.0%
Estimated Natural Real Interest rate = 2.3%
Short-term real interest rate = 2.8%
There is no recession for 3rdQ-2018. Chance of recession is growing as economy has now reached 2nd effective demand limit in this business cycle. I am forecasting that economic conditions will begin to contract in the second half of 2018.
Click on Graphs below to see updated data at FRED.
UT Index (measure of slack):
z-vertical:
z derivatives in terms of labor & capital:
Effective Demand, real GDP & Potential GDP:
ED Output Gap:
Corporate profit rate over real cost of money:
Exponential decay of Inflation:
Measures of Inflation:
YoY Employment change:
Speed of consuming slack: yoy monthly:
Speed of consuming slack: quarterly:
Real consumption per Employee:
Will real wages ever rise faster than productivity?:
Productivity:
Productivity against Effective Demand limit:
Bottom of Initial Claims?:
Tracking inflation expectations:
M2 velocity still falling:
All in one:
Double checking labor share with unit labor costs & inflation:
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Edward Lambert: Independent Researcher on Effective Demand. Graduate of Atlantic International University where independent research was developed.
Some links for economic analysis
Fed Views - San Francisco Fed, around 10th of each month. Well's Fargo monthly - around 10th of each month Well's Fargo weekly Well's Fargo Interest rate report Well's Fargo Economic indicators T. Rowe Price weekly market wrap-up
Fed Views - San Francisco Fed, around 10th of each month. Well's Fargo monthly - around 10th of each month Well's Fargo weekly Well's Fargo Interest rate report Well's Fargo Economic indicators T. Rowe Price weekly market wrap-up
Recent Posts
- Capital Income Consumption is Finally Falling
- Inflation & changes in the # of employed
- Currently at Inflection Point of Unemployment
- Approaching Effective Demand Limit Again
- Capital is Optimizing again
- Projecting the Effective Demand Limit
- Effective Demand Model did very well
- Watching the Craziness
- Inflation as a Mouse not being Chased
- Projecting a Fed Rate Path